First, the shape of it
Tilray’s 10-K for fiscal year 2026 shows record revenue of $915 million and a net loss of $105 million, meaning the company lost roughly thirteen cents on every dollar it brought in. The stock, at $4.08 as of September 22, trades at a price-to-sales ratio that our data places at the very bottom of its own decade range. Those two readings sit in uncomfortable proximity: the filed numbers show a business still bleeding cash, while the price implies the market has already written off most of the upside. The open question is whether the margin picture is genuinely improving, or whether the losses are structural, and the filed history does not yet give a clean answer either way.
Eight years of reinvention, and still no profit
Tilray listed on the Nasdaq in July 2018, raising capital on the promise that legal cannabis would reshape consumer spending. It was a genuine frontier moment. Then the Canadian market got crowded, prices collapsed, and the company spent the next several years trying to buy its way to scale. The April 2021 merger with Aphria created what was then billed as the world’s largest cannabis company, with a combined market value of $8.2 billion. Today that same business is worth roughly a fraction of what it earned in revenue last year alone.
The pivot into craft beer, pharmaceutical distribution, and wellness was meant to reduce the company’s dependence on a cannabis market that kept disappointing. By the fiscal year ended May 2024, the beverage alcohol segment was briefly outpacing cannabis by revenue in a single quarter. That diversification is real, and it shows in the top line. What it has not yet produced is a bottom line.
What the margin history actually shows
The gross margin for Q3 fiscal 2026, the quarter ended February 28, 2026, was 27%, meaning that after the direct cost of making and sourcing its products, Tilray kept roughly a quarter of each revenue dollar. That is the starting line. The problem is everything below it.
Operating expenses, including the administrative overhead and amortization that come with running a multi-continent business stitched together through acquisitions, consumed that gross profit and then some. The operating loss for the third quarter was $26.4 million on roughly two hundred million dollars of revenue. For the full fiscal year 2026, the net loss was $105.2 million, a net margin of negative 13%. That sounds bad, but it is genuinely better than the year before: the fiscal 2025 10-K recorded a net loss of roughly $2.2 billion, almost entirely because of a massive non-cash impairment charge, the accounting term for writing down the value of assets that turned out to be worth less than the company paid for them. Strip that charge out, and the underlying loss trajectory looks like slow improvement rather than catastrophe.
Adjusted EBITDA, a measure that strips out non-cash charges and interest to show the cash-generating power of the core operations, reached $61.1 million for fiscal 2026, up from the prior year, according to the July 2026 earnings release. Think of adjusted EBITDA as the cash a business generates before it pays its lenders and its tax bill. For a company carrying hundreds of millions in total liabilities, that cash matters. But the ratio of cash generated to obligations owed means Tilray is paying down its burden at a slow crawl.
The gross margin is stable and not embarrassing, but the gap between what the company makes on each sale and what it actually keeps remains wide, and acquisitions keep adding to the overhead that widens it.
The price the market is charging, and what it assumes
At $4.08, the stock trades at 0.6 times annual revenue, our data shows, against a decade median of 3.9 times. That gap is not a subtle discount. A business trading at its decade-low price-to-sales ratio is one the market has largely stopped believing in, at least at the multiples it once commanded.
The mood, to use our framework’s term for what the market is currently paying, is deeply pessimistic. The math, what the filed fundamentals actually show, is more complicated. Revenue grew to a record in fiscal 2026. International medical cannabis revenue rose sharply, according to the earnings call transcript. The BrewDog acquisition, completed in March 2026, adds hospitality and brand reach. These are not the numbers of a business in freefall. They are the numbers of a business that has not yet proven it can convert growth into profit at the bottom line.
The reverse stock split implemented in December 2025, consolidating ten old shares into one new share, was designed to attract institutional investors who avoid very low-priced stocks. It did not change the underlying business, but it signals management’s awareness that the stock’s trajectory was becoming a problem in itself.
The regulatory wildcard
The biggest external variable is U.S. federal cannabis policy. On April 28, 2026, the Justice Department reclassified state-licensed medical cannabis and FDA-approved marijuana products to Schedule III, a category that carries far fewer federal restrictions than the old Schedule I. Tilray had already incorporated Tilray Medical USA in December 2025 in anticipation of this shift, according to Investing.com’s coverage. The U.S. medical cannabis market is large, and Tilray has distribution infrastructure that most pure-play cannabis companies do not. Whether rescheduling translates into meaningful revenue is genuinely unknown at this point, and the data cannot yet answer it.
What the analysts say, and where the filed numbers push back
MarketBeat’s consensus of seven analysts as of September 2026 shows an average valuation estimate well above the current price; the consensus sentiment, as categorized by MarketBeat, skews toward neither strong conviction to buy nor to sell. DirectorsTalk Interviews, citing analyst estimates on September 18, 2026, reported a wide range of figures averaging near $7.59, a level those analysts associate with scenarios in which revenue growth continues and the EBITDA-to-GAAP gap narrows materially. Those estimates reflect a view that the revenue base, if it continues to grow, could support a higher valuation multiple than the market is currently applying. The filed numbers support the revenue argument. They do not yet support the profitability argument, and that is the tension the estimates are essentially betting on resolving.
Adjusted EBITDA and GAAP net income are different things, and Tilray has not yet demonstrated that the gap between them closes in a straight line. The filed summary is straightforward: the revenue is real, the losses are narrowing, and the margin that would justify a higher price has not yet appeared in the numbers.
Reading the numbers
- Net revenue, fiscal 2026: $915.5 million. What it is: total sales across cannabis, beverages, pharmaceutical distribution, and wellness for the year ended May 31, 2026. What it means here: record revenue, up 11% from fiscal 2025, showing the diversification strategy is adding sales. Everyday terms: a business that was taking in roughly $513 million five years ago now takes in nearly $920 million, growth of about $400 million, or roughly the annual revenue of a mid-sized regional grocery chain added on top. Source: 10-K, fiscal year ended May 31, 2026.
- Net loss, fiscal 2026: $105.2 million. What it is: the GAAP bottom line after all costs, interest, and taxes. What it means here: for every dollar Tilray earned, it lost about thirteen cents after all expenses, a real but narrowing deficit. Everyday terms: a restaurant bringing in $100,000 a year but spending $113,000 to run it, every year, while hoping the next year’s menu finally turns a profit. Source: 10-K, fiscal year ended May 31, 2026.
- Adjusted EBITDA, fiscal 2026: $61.1 million. What it is: earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, adjusted for non-cash items. Think of it as the cash the operations generate before paying lenders and accountants. What it means here: the core business is generating cash, but not enough to cover all obligations comfortably. Everyday terms: a landlord collecting $61,000 in rent but carrying a $549,000 mortgage, making payments but not getting ahead quickly. Source: GlobeNewswire, July 28, 2026.
- Price-to-sales ratio: 0.6 (decade median: 3.9). What it is: the price tag per dollar of annual revenue. A ratio of 0.6 means the market values the whole company at sixty cents for every dollar it earns in sales. What it means here: the stock is priced at its lowest relative valuation in its own history, implying the market expects either shrinking revenue or persistent losses. Everyday terms: a shop that generates $1,000 a week in sales, priced for sale at $600 total, versus its own historical asking price of $3,900. Source: our data, computed from SEC filings and market prices.
- Gross margin, Q3 fiscal 2026: 27%. What it is: what remains of each revenue dollar after the direct cost of making the product. What it means here: the production economics are stable, but operating expenses consume the gross profit and then some. Everyday terms: a baker selling a loaf for $10 and spending $7.30 on flour, labor, and the oven, keeping $2.70 before paying rent, the accountant, or the loan. Source: 10-Q, quarter ended February 28, 2026.
Sources
- 10-K, fiscal year ended May 31, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)
- 10-Q, quarter ended February 28, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)
- 10-K, fiscal year ended May 31, 2025 (SEC EDGAR)
- GlobeNewswire: Tilray fiscal 2026 earnings release, July 28, 2026
- Investing.com: Tilray fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript
- MarketBeat: TLRY analyst forecasts
- DirectorsTalk Interviews: TLRY analysis, September 18, 2026
- U.S. Department of Justice: cannabis rescheduling announcement
- Investing.com: Tilray U.S. medical cannabis strategy
- GlobeNewswire: Tilray reverse stock split announcement, November 2025
- Cannabis Law Now: Tilray 2018 Nasdaq IPO
- Osler: Tilray-Aphria merger
