Palantir Technologies raised full-year revenue guidance to 91% growth after U.S. commercial revenue surpassed U.S. government revenue in the third quarter for the first time in the company’s history. The shift marks a structural change in the revenue mix: commercial operations grew 148% year-over-year to $984 million, while government revenue grew 96% year-over-year to $953 million.
Third-quarter total revenue reached $2.313 billion, up 96% from the prior year and 20% sequentially, crossing $2 billion in a single quarter for the first time. The company closed 212 deals valued at $1 million or more, including 64 deals of at least $10 million. Total contract value signed in the quarter was $2.918 billion, up 6% year-over-year; U.S. commercial TCV alone was $1.463 billion, up 11% year-over-year.
Palantir raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $8.530 billion and $8.534 billion, representing 91% growth. The company raised U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $3.559 billion, representing growth of at least 143% for the year. Adjusted income from operations guidance was raised to between $5.245 billion and $5.249 billion, and adjusted free cash flow guidance was raised to between $4.8 billion and $5.0 billion.
What it means
The acceleration from FY2025’s 56.2% revenue growth to a 91% full-year 2026 guidance represents a material step-up in the company’s trajectory. The driver is not distributed evenly: U.S. commercial growth at 143% guidance dwarfs the overall rate, suggesting government revenue is growing but at a slower clip. The company’s U.S. commercial remaining deal value stands at $6.517 billion, up 79% year-over-year, indicating a pipeline that has expanded substantially.
The profitability picture is striking. Q3 adjusted operating margin reached 62%, compared to FY2025’s 31.6% operating margin. The company generated $1.216 billion in adjusted free cash flow in the quarter alone, a 53% margin on revenue. This suggests either a material shift in contract mix toward higher-margin business, or a step-change in operational leverage as the installed base scales. The document does not specify which.
The open question is whether commercial growth at this pace is sustainable or represents a comparison effect against a weak prior-year base. The company does not disclose year-over-year commercial revenue figures for Q3 2025, making it impossible to assess whether the 148% growth reflects a low starting point or genuine acceleration in the commercial motion. Similarly, the document does not explain whether the margin expansion reflects pricing power, product mix, or a one-time benefit from deal timing.
What to watch
The Q4 2026 guidance window will test whether the commercial momentum persists. The company guided Q4 revenue to between $2.649 billion and $2.653 billion, implying roughly 20% sequential growth from Q3. If Q4 lands in that range, the full-year 91% growth guidance holds; a miss would signal either a slowdown in commercial bookings or a shift in deal timing. The next quarterly filing will also reveal whether U.S. commercial revenue maintains its lead over government revenue or whether the crossover was a one-quarter event.
Source: the company’s 8-K filed 2026-11-02 with the SEC.
For the standing yardsticks on Palantir Technologies: the price tag, the filed record, and the four gauges, refreshed with each edition, see the BullScope Evidence Sheet: Palantir Technologies.
